The working holiday visa ballot means a thinner bench: how to roster this summer
Last year 31,000 working holiday makers qualified for a third year. Under the ballot announced on 17 September there will be 5,000 places, so here's what's settled, who on your roster is exposed and how to cover the gap.
Last year, 31,000 working holiday makers qualified for a third year in Australia. Under the ballot Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke announced on 17 September 2026, there will be 5,000 places. Second-year places will be capped at 45,000, against the 57,000 who qualified, and for both, the regional work will no longer earn the visa. It will earn a ticket.
None of this empties your roster in December, and no start date has been published. What the ballot will do is thin your bench from the top: it shrinks the pool of backpackers on second and third visas, the ones most likely to have worked a summer here already.
The short version: second and third-year working holiday visas are moving to ballots with 45,000 and 5,000 places, and no start date had been published as at 12 October 2026. Ask every working holiday maker on your books for their visa end date, passport and plans for another year, count the weekly hours that leave before April, and line up cover from people the ballot doesn't touch. This is general information, not migration or legal advice.
What's settled, and what isn't yet
| Change | What was announced | Where it stands at 12 October 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Second-year visas | A ballot for 45,000 places. 57,000 people qualified last year | Announced 17 September, no start date published |
| Third-year visas | A ballot for 5,000 places. 31,000 qualified last year | Announced 17 September, no start date published |
| Regional work | Still 88 days for a second year and six months for a third. Doing it will get you into the draw | Unchanged |
| UK passport holders | No regional work needed for a second or third visa since 1 July 2024 | The announcement doesn't say how the ballot treats them |
| Processing | Expected to average around three months for most working holiday visas | Under way |
| Switching to a student visa | Working holiday makers are among those who can no longer apply from inside Australia | In effect since 2 October 2026 |
Home Affairs says the changes "have begun to be implemented and will be progressively rolled out over the next 12 months". The tourism, accommodation, farming and business groups opposing the ballot expect it from November, and they're still asking for the detail: when exactly it starts, how places are allocated, and whether people who've already done their regional work go into the draw at all. Plan for a range, not a date.
The odds, on last year's numbers
| Visa | Ballot places | Qualified last year | Odds if the same number qualify |
|---|---|---|---|
| Second year | 45,000 | 57,000 | About 79%, roughly four in five |
| Third year | 5,000 | 31,000 | About 16%, roughly one in six |
The second-year draw is a trim. The third-year draw is a cliff, and regional venues are already feeling it: Crystalbrook's chief executive told the ABC that 45% of the group's 500 Cairns staff hold working holiday visas, and that many won't risk another six months of regional work for "a one in six chance". When the Queensland Tourism Industry Council surveyed 38 operators across 11 regions, four in five said they'd cut trading hours or days, or close, without backpackers.
"You can't roster a summer season on a lottery. Operators need to know who will be working for them this Christmas, and right now they don't." Natassia Wheeler, Queensland Tourism Industry Council
Who on your roster is exposed
In a city venue the ballot lands on visa end dates rather than all at once. Take a small bar in Surry Hills with 16 casuals, five of them on working holiday visas, then run the same questions over your own list.
| Who | What the changes do | Likely last shift | Weekly hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK bartender on a first visa, planning three years | Needs no regional work for another visa, so the least exposed. Watch for the ballot detail | Not this summer | 25 |
| German runner on a third visa | Nothing. There was never a fourth year | February, when the visa ends | 15 |
| French floor staff on a first visa, wants a second year | Still leaves for at least 88 days of regional work, and coming back would be about a four in five shot | January | 20 |
| Korean barista on a first visa, planned to switch to a student visa | Can't apply for a student visa from inside Australia since 2 October | March, when the visa ends | 20 |
| Italian bartender on a second visa, wanted a third year | A one in six shot. May skip the regional work, stay longer, then go for good | May, when the visa ends | 30 |
Add it up and 55 of this bar's weekly hours leave by the end of March, most of them Thursday to Saturday nights, with 30 more in May. Stretching whoever's left is the tempting fix and the dearest one: once a casual goes past 38 hours a week (averaged across the cycle, if you roster in cycles of up to four weeks), the award moves them onto overtime rates, and a Level 2 Saturday goes from $40.62 an hour to $54.16. Two Level 2 casuals each adding an eight-hour Saturday to a full 38-hour week cost $866.56 between them, instead of $649.92.
Five things to do before the summer peak
- Ask the visa questions again. End date, passport, and whether they still plan regional work, another year or a student visa. Plans changed on 17 September and again on 2 October, so an answer from August may already be stale.
- Put every end date before April on the roster. Then count the hours by night. Our guide to building the bench before February covers the sizing, which usually comes out at two or three casuals cleared for your busiest nights, not one new full-timer.
- Recruit from pools the ballot doesn't touch. UK passport holders need no regional work for another visa, uni students want summer hours, and hospitality regulars with day jobs often want a night or two. International students can work too, within the limits in our guide to rostering visa staff.
- Don't let a good backpacker go at six months. Since 1 January 2024, tourism and hospitality work anywhere in Australia has been exempt from the six-month limit with one employer, with no permission needed, and Home Affairs says that holds until the government decides otherwise.
- Choose your overflow route now. Some Saturdays the bench will be short too. Decide whether that night goes to a regular on overtime, an agency or a pool you reach from the roster, using what each route costs, before the group chat decides for you.
Where Shiftly fits
A thinner bench makes the fill the hard part, and that's the part Shiftly is built for. It's free workforce management for Australian venues, the roster that fills itself: staff keep their availability current in the app, open shifts go to the people cleared for the role, and the roster estimates each day's labour cost as you build it. For the nights your team can't cover, Shiftly On-Demand will let you post the shift to local hospitality workers engaged directly by your venue, with Shiftly facilitating the match rather than acting as the employer or an agency. Anyone who works a shift still needs the right to work in Australia, however they found it. On-Demand is coming soon, starting in Sydney, so get your team and roster set up now. Get started with Shiftly.
Frequently asked questions
When does the working holiday visa ballot start?
No start date had been published when we checked Home Affairs on 12 October 2026. The department says the changes will be rolled out progressively over the next 12 months, and the industry groups opposing the ballot expect it from November. Until the rules are out, roster as if a backpacker whose visa ends this summer leaves when it does.
Does the ballot affect backpackers already working for me?
Not the visa they hold now. The ballot decides who gets the next one, so a second-year backpacker who decides a one in six shot isn't worth six months of regional work may stay on your floor longer this season, then leave for good when the visa ends. Separately, since 2 October 2026 working holiday makers have been among the visa holders who can't apply for a student visa from inside Australia, which closes the other common way of staying on.
Are UK backpackers part of the ballot?
UK passport holders haven't needed any regional work for a second or third working holiday visa since 1 July 2024. The 17 September announcement doesn't spell out how the ballot treats them, so they're the least exposed group on most rosters, though their plans are still worth asking about.
Co-founder of Shiftly. Milan works with hospitality businesses across Australia to make rostering, timesheets and award-based pay radically simpler.
